As world leaders gather in Antalya, Türkiye, for COP31, one issue is receiving particular attention: waste.

With 11 November dedicated to Zero Waste, the conference is putting greater emphasis on how preventing waste can contribute to global climate commitments.

Food waste is a particularly important part of that conversation. Unlike some climate challenges that depend on technologies still being developed, many of the tools needed to reduce food waste already exist.

The challenge is putting them to work at scale.

For restaurants, supermarkets, distributors and manufacturers, that means looking beyond what happens to food after it has been discarded and focusing on why it becomes waste in the first place.

The environmental cost of food waste

The scale of the problem is difficult to ignore.

According to the United Nations Environment Programme's Food Waste Index Report, approximately 1.05 billion tonnes of food waste were generated globally in 2022.

Foodservice businesses accounted for 290 million tonnes, while retailers generated another 131 million tonnes.

Across the wider food system, food loss and waste are responsible for an estimated 8-10% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

And the environmental impact extends beyond emissions.

Every wasted product represents resources that have already been consumed. Water used in agriculture, energy required for processing and refrigeration, packaging materials, transport and labour can all be wasted alongside the food itself.

When food is discarded, those resources cannot be recovered simply by recycling its packaging or processing the waste.

This is why prevention matters so much.

Food waste often begins long before food reaches the bin

For enterprise food businesses, waste is frequently the result of decisions made much earlier in the supply chain.

Consider a restaurant preparing for a busy lunchtime.

Historical sales suggest a certain level of demand, so the kitchen prepares additional products to maintain availability. Unfortunately, demand is lower than expected, leaving excess food that cannot be sold.

Elsewhere, another restaurant experiences unexpectedly high demand and runs out of the same product.

Both locations have an operational problem. One has unnecessary waste, while the other has missed sales.

Now extend that situation across hundreds or thousands of locations.

Distributors may be responding to inflated orders, manufacturers may be producing against inaccurate demand signals, and procurement teams may be purchasing additional stock to protect against uncertainty.

The result is a supply chain that can generate unnecessary waste at multiple stages.

Importantly, these decisions are rarely made with the intention of wasting food.

They are made to protect product availability, maintain customer service and manage operational risk.

The opportunity is to give businesses better information so they can achieve those objectives without relying on excessive stock or overproduction.

Better forecasting is a sustainability tool

Forecasting is often discussed in commercial terms.

Better forecasts can improve product availability, reduce inventory costs and protect margins.

But forecasting also has a direct role in sustainability.

When a business can predict demand more accurately, it can make better decisions about what to purchase, how much to prepare and where inventory needs to be positioned.

That requires more than analysing historical sales.

Modern demand forecasting can account for variables such as weather conditions, local events, promotions, seasonal patterns and changing customer preferences.

It also needs to recognise that demand differs between individual products and locations.

A forecast might correctly predict that a restaurant will sell 500 meals tomorrow, but that does not necessarily mean it has predicted the right mix of ingredients or menu items.

For perishable products, getting that mix wrong can still create significant waste.

The next challenge is connecting those forecasts with inventory, purchasing, preparation and distribution.

A more accurate prediction is valuable. A better operational decision made using that prediction is what actually prevents waste.

Why connected supply chains matter

Food businesses increasingly recognise that sustainability cannot be managed entirely within individual locations.

A restaurant may improve its ordering practices, but if its distributor continues purchasing against distorted historical demand, unnecessary inventory can remain elsewhere in the supply chain.

Similarly, manufacturers can improve production efficiency but still produce excess stock if they lack visibility of changing consumer demand.

Reducing food waste at scale requires better connections between the organisations responsible for producing, distributing, preparing and selling food.

This means sharing more reliable demand information, understanding actual consumption and improving visibility of inventory throughout the supply chain.

With better information, businesses have an opportunity to reduce unnecessary stockholding without compromising product availability.

It also means sustainability and commercial performance can support one another.

Less excess inventory reduces working capital requirements. Better replenishment can lower storage and handling costs. More accurate production planning can reduce waste and protect profitability.

These are not competing objectives.

AI can help, but only when it changes decisions

Artificial intelligence has created new opportunities to improve forecasting and operational planning.

Machine learning can identify demand patterns that traditional forecasting approaches may struggle to recognise, particularly when working across large numbers of products, locations and external variables.

However, technology alone does not guarantee better outcomes.

An advanced forecasting model that produces accurate predictions but never influences purchasing or preparation decisions will have a limited impact on food waste.

The value comes from connecting intelligence with action.

At Orderly, that principle shapes how we approach food waste reduction.

Our technology connects operational information to help businesses make more informed decisions about demand, stock and food preparation.

Our Digital Store Assistant, for example, uses operational data to help teams anticipate requirements and take action before waste occurs.

In restaurant settings, sites using our technology have been proven to acheive up to a 21% reduction in food waste in a University-led study of our techology.

It is an example of what becomes possible when technology is designed around practical operational decisions rather than simply generating more reports.

From climate commitments to measurable results

One of the central themes of COP31 is moving climate commitments towards practical implementation.

For the food industry, that creates an important question.

How do we measure whether sustainability initiatives are actually working?

Setting a target to reduce food waste is a useful starting point, but organisations also need to understand how much food is being wasted, where it happens and what causes it.

That means establishing reliable baseline measurements, tracking changes over time and identifying the operational decisions responsible for improvement.

It also means recognising that different locations, products and supply chains face different challenges.

A high-volume urban restaurant will not necessarily benefit from the same approach as a supermarket, distribution centre or food manufacturer.

Effective technology must account for those differences while giving businesses consistent visibility of their performance.

The objective should be measurable improvements in food waste, operational efficiency and resource use.

Beyond COP31: Making waste prevention part of everyday operations

COP31 is an important opportunity to bring governments, businesses and other organisations together around climate action.

Its focus on zero waste and sustainable food systems is welcome.

But meaningful progress will depend on what happens after the discussions conclude.

For the food industry, reducing waste does not need to be treated as a separate sustainability initiative that sits alongside normal operations.

It can become part of how businesses forecast demand, manage inventory, plan production and serve customers every day.

As a certified B Corp, Orderly believes that better business performance and positive environmental outcomes should go hand in hand.

We see technology as a practical way to help achieve both.

The food industry already has access to enormous amounts of operational data. The opportunity now is to connect that information, turn it into better decisions and prevent unnecessary waste before it happens.

Because while COP31 can help establish the global ambition, the real impact will come from millions of better decisions made throughout the food supply chain.

And the most effective way to manage food waste will always be to prevent it in the first place.

Orderly helps enterprise restaurants, retailers and their supply chains improve forecasting, inventory management and operational decision-making to reduce waste and improve efficiency. Discover Orderly.

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